Introduction

Hi all, welcome back to this week’s market analysis for August 4, 2025. The cryptocurrency market has seen a pullback fueled by a hawkish FOMC last week and last week’s bullish momentum, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins losing some ground. This report compares this week’s performance to last week’s predictions, updates key market metrics, and provides actionable trading insights for TOTAL, TOTAL3, BTC.D, BTC, ETH, and SOL, alongside relevant macro-economic events.

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Key Takeaways

• Total Market Cap (TOTAL): Declined to $3.68T, down 6.8% from last week’s $3.95T, testing critical support at $3.65T.
• Altcoin Market (TOTAL3): Dropped to $970B, down 15.7% from $1.15T, retreating below the $1T level.
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Climbed to 62%, up from 60.42%, indicating Bitcoin’s relative strength.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Dropped to $112,000, down 5.1% from $118,000, holding above key support.
• Ethereum (ETH): Fell to $3,500, down 7.9% from $3,800, testing support after failing to break its high.
• Solana (SOL): Declined to $163, down 19.5% from $202.35, retreating from its breakout.
• Macro Events: Initial Jobless Claims (August 7) could influence market sentiment; ongoing global liquidity concerns linger.
• Overall Expectation: Consolidation likely, with potential for further downside if supports break, but buying opportunities may emerge on dips.

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TOTAL Market Cap Analysis

The TOTAL market cap has declined to around $3.68T, with a low below $3.6T, and is currently at support. This represents a 6.8% drop from last week’s $3.95T, failing to break the $4T resistance as anticipated.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s bullish prediction of a grind toward $4T did not materialize, with the market instead testing the $3.65T support, which has held so far. The bearish case of a potential correction toward $3.2T remains a risk if support breaks. Volume has decreased, signaling reduced buying pressure.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Holding the $3.65T level and reclaiming $3.8T could lead to a retest of $4T.
• Bearish Case: A break below $3.65T could target $3.4T as the next support.
• Strategy: Watch the $3.65T level closely. Consider long entries on a bounce with volume confirmation.

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TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap) Analysis

Just like the TOTAL cap, TOTAL3 went down under $1T again, trading at around $970B, a 15.7% decline from $1.08T last week. The Altcoin Season Index has likely dropped from 38/100, reflecting weakened altcoin momentum.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s prediction of a breakout above $1.3T was overly optimistic, as TOTAL3 failed to sustain above $1.1T and fell back to $970B. The bearish case of consolidation around $1.1T was partially accurate, but the decline was sharper than expected.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A grind back above $1T and holding as support could signal renewed altcoin strength, targeting $1.3T.
• Bearish Case: A break below $925B could lead to further downside toward $850B.
• Strategy: Accumulate high-quality altcoins on dips to $925B-$970B. Monitor for a high-volume break above $1T.

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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Analysis

BTC.D climbed to 62%, up from 60.42%, indicating that Bitcoin is gaining ground compared to altcoins. Bitcoin’s relative strength has held firm despite the market dip.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s prediction of a continued decline below 60% did not occur, with BTC.D instead rebounding to 62%, aligning with the bearish case for altcoins. This shift suggests capital is rotating back into Bitcoin amid market uncertainty.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case for Altcoins: A drop in BTC.D below 60% could fuel altcoin rallies.
• Bearish Case for Altcoins: BTC.D climbing to test 64% could further suppress altcoin performance.
• Strategy: Use BTC.D as a leading indicator. Prepare for altcoin trades if dominance drops toward 60%, or focus on Bitcoin if dominance rises.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

BTC dropped to a low of $112,000 and is now consolidating, down 5.1% from $118,000 last week. The $100,000 support remains intact, but the $120,000 resistance was not retested.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s bullish case of a break above $120,000 did not occur, with BTC instead testing the lower end of the $110,000-$115,000 range. The $112,000 support held as predicted.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A move above $115,000 could retest $120,000, with potential to target $130,000 on strong volume.
• Bearish Case: A break below $112,000 could lead to a deeper correction toward $100,000.
• Strategy: Scale into longs on dips to $110,000-$112,000, with stop-losses below $100,000. Monitor for breakout trades above $115,000.

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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

ETH lost ground, falling to $3,500 from its high of $3,800, a 7.9% decline, and is now testing support. The failure to break its ATH has led to consolidation.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s bullish case of a break above $3,800 did not materialize, with ETH instead aligning with the bearish case of consolidation near $3,600. The high-volume breakout scenario stalled, reflecting broader market weakness.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A reclaim of $3,600 with volume could push ETH toward $3,800-$4,200.
• Bearish Case: A break below $3,500 may lead to further downside toward $3,200.
• Strategy: Enter longs on a high-volume bounce above $3,600, with stop-losses below $3,500. Scale into positions on dips to $3,500-$3,600.

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Solana (SOL) Analysis

SOL dropped to $163 from its high of $202.35, a 19.5% decline, retreating from last week’s breakout momentum.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s bullish case of sustained momentum above $200 was overly optimistic, with SOL falling below $190 and aligning with the bearish case of consolidation near $180. The sharp decline reflects increased market volatility and reduced altcoin momentum.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A recovery above $180 could target $200-$250 with volume confirmation.
• Bearish Case: A break below $150 may lead to further downside toward $130.
• Strategy: Accumulate on dips to $150-$160. Look for breakout trades above $180 with strong volume.

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Macro-Economic Events This Week

Macro-Economic Events This Week

Key events that could influence market volatility include:

• Initial Jobless Claims (August 7): Higher-than-expected claims could signal economic weakness, potentially boosting crypto as a hedge if rate cut expectations rise, or pressuring prices if risk-off sentiment dominates.

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Overall Expectation

The market is in consolidation after a sharp pullback, with TOTAL testing $3.65T support and TOTAL3 dropping below $1T. Bitcoin’s dominance at 62% suggests capital rotation into BTC, limiting altcoin gains. ETH and SOL are at critical support levels, with potential buying opportunities if they hold. The Initial Jobless Claims report could introduce volatility, with weaker data potentially supporting crypto via rate cut expectations.

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Conclusion

The market pulled back after last week’s rally, with TOTAL and TOTAL3 testing key supports and BTC.D rising to 62%. Bitcoin’s stability at $112,000, combined with ETH and SOL’s declines, reflects a risk-off phase. Last week’s bullish predictions were overly optimistic, but the $3.65T support for TOTAL and $112,000 for BTC have held. Monitor macro events, particularly Initial Jobless Claims, and key technical levels for trading opportunities. This dip may present a buying opportunity for Q4 2025, but stay disciplined with risk management.