Introduction

Welcome to this week’s market analysis. This report covers the latest movements in the TOTAL market cap, altcoin market (TOTAL3), Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), and key cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and SOL, alongside significant macro-economic events that could impact volatility.

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Key Takeaways

• Total Market Cap (TOTAL): Risen from 3.64T to 4T, currently testing resistance with a bullish outlook if it holds.
• Altcoin Market (TOTAL3): Recovered above 1T, holding as support, with potential to reach 1.15T.
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Dropped to 59.8% but rebounded to 60.55%, influencing altcoin dynamics.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Climbed from $120,000 to $122,500, now slightly below $120,000 with strong $112,000 support.
• Ethereum (ETH): Recovered from $3,400 to $4,300, up 26%, showing strong bullish momentum.
• Solana (SOL): Bounced from $155 to $175, up 12%, with profit from the $160-150 dip buy zone.
• Macro Events: CPI, PPI and Initial Job Claims on Thursday could sway market sentiment.
• Overall Expectation: Mixed outlook with bullish potential if key levels hold, tempered by macro-economic risks.

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TOTAL Market Cap Analysis

The TOTAL market cap has risen from 3.64T back to 4T, we are currently trading at resistance.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s bullish scenario has played out. I anticipated that the 3.65T level would hold which it did and we are now back up to retest 4T.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Break and hold above 4T could signal a strong upward trend, potentially targeting higher resistance levels.
• Bearish Case: Break below 3.64T but I see it less likely, though it could lead to a drop toward 3.4T if momentum shifts.
• Strategy: Focus on a breakout above 4T with confirmation from volume. Consider entering long positions if the resistance holds as support.

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TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap) Analysis

The TOTAL3 index went up again above 1T but is still trading below last high of 1.15T

Comparison to Last Week: The bullish case has played out perfectly, price has grinded back above 1T and is now holding it as support so far.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Keep holding the 1T level and going back towards 1.15T could signal a continuation of the upward trend.
• Bearish Case: Break back below 1T might indicate a reversal, potentially targeting lower support levels.
• Strategy: Watch the 1T level closely for confirmation of support. Consider entering long positions on a bounce with volume support.

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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Analysis

BTC.D dived from 62.5% back down to a low of 59.8%, but is now back up to 60.55%.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s drop below 60% has played out. Mostly fueled by the ETH rally.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case for Altcoins: Continued decline below 60% could signal stronger altcoin performance relative to BTC.
• Bearish Case for Altcoins: Bounce back from 60% to higher levels might indicate BTC dominance resurgence, pressuring altcoins.
• Strategy: Use BTC.D as an indicator when Altcoin longs seem viable, entering positions on a confirmed break below 60% with volume support, and monitor for a reversal above 60.55%.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

BTC has risen from $120,000 to a high of $122,500 and is trading slightly below $120,000. With the support zone of $112,000 holding up perfectly.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week I predicted that $112,000 would be a good buying opportunity, and this has played out perfectly.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Break and hold above $120,000 could signal a move toward higher resistance levels.
• Bearish Case: Drop back below $116,000 might indicate a retreat toward $112,000 support.
• Strategy: Hold position open with a revised SL below $115,000 to manage risk.

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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

ETH has recovered from its dip to $3,400 and is now trading at $4,300 as of 10:31 AM CEST on August 12, 2025, up 26%.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s trade setup has played out of buying the breakout of $3,600, netting a profit of 19%.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Grind up towards $4,500 could indicate further upward momentum.
• Bearish Case: Retrace back to $4,000 might signal a consolidation or pullback.
• Strategy: Hold the position and set a SL below $4,000 to protect gains.

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Solana (SOL) Analysis

SOL bounced up from its $155 low and is now trading back up at $175 up 12%.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week I pointed out the dip buy zone of $160 - 150, this has been filled so we are in position now and in profit of around 10%.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Break above $180 could signal further upside potential.
• Bearish Case: Retrace back below $170 might indicate a pullback to lower support.
• Strategy: Hold position and set a SL below $170 to protect gains.

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Macro-Economic Events This Week

Key events that could influence market volatility include:

• CPI (August 12): could drive market moves, with higher-than-expected inflation potentially pressuring risk assets, while a softer print might boost bullish sentiment.
• PPI (August 14): could signal producer-level inflation trends, with a higher reading possibly increasing rate hike expectations and a lower reading supporting risk assets.
• Initial Job Claims (August 14): higher-than-expected claims could dampen risk appetite, while lower claims may support bullish sentiment.

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Overall Expectation

The market shows a cautiously optimistic outlook with key levels holding, particularly at 4T for TOTAL, 1T for TOTAL3, and $112,000 for BTC. ETH and SOL’s strong recoveries further support a bullish bias, though BTC.D’s rebound suggests potential pressure on altcoins. Macro events like CPI today and PPI/Job Claims on Thursday could introduce volatility, with softer inflation data favoring risk assets and higher data possibly triggering a pullback.

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Conclusion

This week’s analysis highlights a market regaining momentum after last week’s dips, with strategic opportunities at key support and resistance levels. Stay vigilant with macro data releases and adjust positions accordingly to capitalize on the evolving trends.