Introduction

Welcome to the Weekly Market Analysis for August 18, 2025. The cryptocurrency market has faced a pullback this week, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at approximately $115,000 after a small new high, down from recent peaks. The total market cap has retreated to around $3.8T, reflecting broader caution amid macro uncertainties. This post dives into key trends, including total market cap, altcoin performance, Bitcoin dominance, and analyses of BTC, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). We also cover upcoming macro events and offer actionable trading insights to navigate the current environment.

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Key Takeaways

• Total Market Cap (TOTAL): Declined to $3.8T after peaking at $4.2T; prior breakout above $4T invalidated, with potential for grinding down to $3.64T support.
• Altcoin Market (TOTAL3): Holding above $1T with signs of support; bullish case from last week intact, eyeing a move toward $1.15T.
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Stable just below 60%, signaling altcoin strength; a continued hold below this level supports capital rotation to alts.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Made a small new high but declined, closing prior trade; likely to revisit $112,000 support, with $116,000 as key resistance.
• Ethereum (ETH): Hit above $4,600 before pulling back to $4,300; trade setup remains valid with SL below $4,000, grinding toward $4,500 in bullish case.
• Solana (SOL): Broke above $180 and forming higher lows around $183; bullish case holds, with trade active and SL below $170.
• Macro Events: Initial Jobless Claims (August 21) and FED Powell Speech (August 22) may introduce volatility, with dovish signals potentially boosting risk assets.
• Overall Expectation: Cautiously bullish short-term, with possible grind lower in total cap but altcoins resilient; monitor supports and macro data for direction.

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TOTAL Market Cap Analysis

The TOTAL market cap has seen a bit of decline, we went to a peak of 4.2T but are now trading back below 4T around 3.8T.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week I pointed out the possebility of breaking out of 4T but to be cautios and see if it holds as support, it has reversed rather quickly so this setup was invalidated.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: We make a lower low and bounce back up towards 4.2T again
• Bearish Case: Continued decline with a break below 3.64T
• Strategy: I could see the possebility of the market grinding downwards toward 3.64T again so keep a watch on that level.

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TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap) Analysis

The TOTAL3 index is still trading above 1T which is a good thing, it showing sings of support

Comparison to Last Week: Still in line with the bullish case pointed out last week, we are holding the 1T level as support and tried moving towards 1.15T. Bullish case still stands the same as last week.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Keep holding the 1T level and going back towards 1.15T could signal a continuation of the upward trend.
• Bearish Case: Break back below 1T might indicate a reversal, potentially targeting lower support levels.
• Strategy: Watch the 1T level closely for confirmation of support. Consider entering long positions on a bounce with volume support.

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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Analysis

BTC.D has been pretty stable the last few days, trading just below 60%.

Comparison to Last Week: Still the same setup mostly, eyeing the 60% level as long as we stay below that the altcoins are showing stregth

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case for Altcoins: Continued decline below 60% could signal stronger altcoin performance relative to BTC.
• Bearish Case for Altcoins: Bounce back from 60% to higher levels might indicate BTC dominance resurgence, pressuring altcoins.
• Strategy: Use BTC.D as an indicator when Altcoin longs seem viable, entering positions on a confirmed break below 60% with volume support, and monitor for a reversal above 60.55%.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

BTC made a small new high last week and has been on the decline since. It seems likely that we revisit the same support zone as before.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week I opted to hold open the trade position from the support level of $112,000. I pointed out that a break below $116,000 could indicate a reversal so that trade has been closed manually.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Break and hold above $116,000 could signal a move toward higher resistance levels.
• Bearish Case: Drop back below $115,000 might indicate a retreat toward $112,000 support.
• Strategy: Still looking out when the next entry would be depending on how we move forward.

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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

ETH made a high above $4,600 and declined since. It is now trading at $4,300

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s trade setup is still active. I have a SL set below $4,000. The bullish scenario has played out grinding towards $4,500. Setup still remains valid.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Rebounce back above $4,400
• Bearish Case: Retrace back to $4,000 might signal a consolidation or pullback.
• Strategy: Hold the position and set a SL below $4,000 to protect gains.

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Solana (SOL) Analysis

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s bullish case is still valid we broke above $180 and are now making a higher low. The trade still remains active.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Break above $190 could signal further upside potential.
• Bearish Case: Retrace back below $170 might indicate a pullback to lower support.
• Strategy: Hold position and set a SL below $170 to protect gains.

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Macro-Economic Events This Week

Key events that could influence market volatility include:

• Initial Job Claims (August 21): Could signal labor market strength, with higher-than-expected claims potentially dampening risk appetite and pressuring crypto prices, while lower claims might reinforce economic resilience and support bullish sentiment.
• FED Powell Speech (August 22): could provide key insights into monetary policy, with dovish tones hinting at rate cuts boosting risk assets like cryptocurrencies, whereas hawkish comments may increase expectations for tighter policy and trigger sell-offs.

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Overall Expectation

The market appears cautiously bullish in the short term, with the total market cap potentially grinding lower toward $3.64T support amid recent declines, while altcoins show relative strength by holding above 1T and benefiting from BTC dominance below 60%. Bitcoin may revisit lower supports around $112,000, but a bounce could stabilize the broader market. Ethereum and Solana trades remain active with protective stops in place, suggesting potential for upside if altcoin momentum persists. Upcoming macro events, including Initial Jobless Claims and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, could introduce volatility dovish signals may fuel rallies, while hawkish tones could exacerbate pullbacks. Overall, expect ranging or mild downside unless key supports hold and macro data supports risk assets.

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Conclusion

This week’s cryptocurrency market reflects a pullback in total cap and Bitcoin, invalidating some prior breakout scenarios, but altcoins like ETH and SOL are holding key levels and showing resilience amid stable BTC dominance below 60%. Traders should monitor critical supports ($3.64T for TOTAL, 1T for TOTAL3, $112,000 for BTC) and watch for macro-driven volatility from Initial Jobless Claims on August 21 and Fed Powell’s speech on August 22.