Introduction

Hi all, welcome back to this week’s market analysis for July 28, 2025. The cryptocurrency market continues its bullish momentum, with Bitcoin consolidating around $116,000 after a slight pullback from last week’s $122,000 high. This report updates last week’s analysis, compares predictions to actual outcomes, and provides actionable trading insights for key assets (BTC, ETH, SOL) and market structures (TOTAL, TOTAL3, BTC.D). We’ll also highlight macro-economic events that could drive volatility this week.

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Key Takeaways

• Total Market Cap (TOTAL): Trading at $3.95T, slightly up from last week’s $3.93T, with $4T acting as a key resistance and $3.65T as support.
• Altcoin Market (TOTAL3): Gaining momentum at $1.15T, approaching its all-time high (ATH) of $1.3T, supported by rising volume.
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Further declined to 59.2% from 60.8%, signaling stronger altcoin performance.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Holding at $116,000, above the $100,000 support, with $120,000 as immediate resistance.
• Ethereum (ETH): Pushing toward its ATH at $3,800, up 5.8% from last week.
• Solana (SOL): Surged 14% to $202.35, confirming breakout momentum.
• Macro Events: Unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reports (August 1), US GDP data (July 30), and FOMC interest rate decision (July 31).
• Overall Expectation: Bullish bias persists, with altcoins likely to outperform as BTC.D trends lower.

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TOTAL Market Cap Analysis

The total market cap has edged up to $3.95T from last week’s $3.93T, testing the $4T resistance as predicted. The $3.65T support level held strong, with higher lows on the daily chart reinforcing bullish sentiment. Volume remains steady, indicating sustained buying pressure.

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s prediction of a slow grind toward $4T was accurate, with the market briefly touching $3.98T. The $3.65T support was not tested, aligning with our bullish outlook.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A confirmed breakout above $4T with strong volume could target $4.2T.
• Bearish Case: A break below $3.65T may lead to a deeper correction toward $3.2T.
• Strategy: Enter long positions on dips to $3.65T-$3.8T, with stop-losses below $3.65T. Breakout trades above $4T are viable with volume confirmation.

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TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap) Analysis

The altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) climbed to $1.15T, up from $1.1T last week, driven by increased trading volume and declining BTC.D. The Altcoin Season Index rose to 38/100 from 33/100, signaling growing altcoin momentum.

Comparison to Last Week: The predicted breakout above the ATH ($1.3T) is nearing, as rising volume and capital rotation into altcoins align with last week’s outlook. The shift toward an altcoin season is gaining traction.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A break above $1.3T confirms an altcoin season, potentially targeting $1.5T.
• Bearish Case: Failure to break $1.3T may lead to consolidation around $1.1T.
• Strategy: Accumulate high-quality altcoins on dips to $1.1T. Look for long entries on a high-volume break above $1.3T.

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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Analysis

Bitcoin dominance dropped to 60.42% from 60.8%, net yet breaking below the 60% threshold flagged last week as a catalyst for altcoin rallies. BTC.D has remained the same as last week.

Comparison to Last Week: Not much has changed compared to last week so far.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case for Altcoins: Continued decline below 60% could fuel significant altcoin gains.
• Bearish Case for Altcoins: A rebound above 62% may slow altcoin momentum.
• Strategy: Monitor BTC.D as a leading indicator. Prepare for altcoin trades if dominance falls toward 55%.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

Bitcoin is trading at $118,000, slightly up from $116,000 last week, but holding above the $100,000 support. The $120,000 resistance is in focus, with consolidation likely before the next move.

Comparison to Last Week: The bullish case of BTC holding above $100,000 was correct, though the $120,000 breakout didn’t materialize. The $100,000 support remains intact, supporting the uptrend.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A break above $120,000 could target $130,000, confirmed by higher highs on the 4-hour chart.
• Bearish Case: A drop below $110,000 may test $100,000 support.
• Strategy: Scale into longs on dips to $110,000-$115,000, with stop-losses below $100,000. Consider breakout trades above $120,000 with volume.

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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

Ethereum has risen 5.8% to $3,800, nearing its ATH, fueled by positive regulatory news and altcoin momentum. Last week’s breakout prediction is unfolding, with ETH outperforming BTC.

Comparison to Last Week: ETH’s strength was anticipated, and it’s now testing its ATH, aligning with the bullish case. The high-volume breakout scenario continues to develop.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A break above $3,800 could push ETH toward $4,200-$4,500.
• Bearish Case: Failure to break $3,800 may lead to consolidation near $3,600.
• Strategy: Enter longs on a high-volume break above $3,800, with stop-losses below $3,600. Scale into positions on dips to $3,600-$3,700.

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Solana (SOL) Analysis

Solana surged 14% to $202.35, confirming the breakout from last week’s consolidation and supported by declining BTC.D and altcoin season momentum.

Comparison to Last Week: The bullish case of a breakout above $180 played out, with SOL surpassing the $200 target. The high-volume move aligns with our predictions.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Sustained momentum above $200 could target $250-$300.
• Bearish Case: A drop below $190 may signal consolidation near $180.
• Strategy: Accumulate on dips to $190-$195, with stop-losses below $180. Look for breakout trades above $200 with volume confirmation.

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Macro-Economic Events This Week

Macro-Economic Events This Week

Key events that could influence market volatility include:

• US GDP data (July 30): Stronger-than-expected growth may boost risk assets, while weaker data could dampen sentiment.
• FOMC interest rate decision (July 30): Any hints of tightening could pressure crypto prices, while a dovish stance may support bullish momentum.
• Unemployment (August 1): A higher-than-expected rate could signal economic slowdown, potentially impacting risk assets like crypto negatively.
• NFP (August 1): A weaker-than-expected report could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting crypto prices, while a strong report may reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, pressuring prices.

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Overall Expectation

The market maintains a bullish outlook, with the total market cap testing $4T and altcoins gaining significant traction as BTC.D falls to 59.2%. Bitcoin remains stable at $116,000, while ETH and SOL show strong breakout potential, supported by rising TOTAL3 volume. Upcoming macro events, particularly the Unemployment and NFP reports, could introduce volatility, with a weaker labor market potentially fueling bullish sentiment via rate cut expectations.

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Conclusion

The crypto market continues its bullish trend, with last week’s predictions of $3.65T support holding and altcoin breakouts materializing. Bitcoin’s stability at $116,000, combined with ETH and SOL’s strength, aligns with declining BTC.D and rising altcoin momentum. Monitor key levels ($4T for TOTAL, $1.3T for TOTAL3, $100,000 for BTC) and macro events like US GDP, FOMC decisions, Unemployment, and NFP for trading opportunities. Stay disciplined, use technical indicators, and manage risk effectively.