Introduction

Hi all, welcome back to this weeks market analysis for July 21, 2025. The cryptomarket continues to print bullish price action. Bitcoin is consolidating near $118,000 after making a high of $122,000 last week. In this report I will update last week’s analysis and will compare what I predicted to what has happened. I will provide actionable insights on key assets (ETH, SOL, BTC) and overall market structure (TOTAL, TOTAL3, BTC.D) and highlight some important macro-economic events that could drive volatility.

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Key Takeaways

• Total Market Cap (TOTAL): Trading at $3.93T, slightly below last week’s $3.98T high and testing support near $3.65T with potential to push toward $4T.
• Altcoin Market (TOTAL3): Altcoins remain below their all-time high (ATH), but increased volume suggests growing momentum.
• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Dropped to 60.8% from 64.7%, hinting at capital rotation into altcoins.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Stabilized at $118,000, holding above key support at $100,000, with $130,000 as next resistance.
• Ethereum (ETH): Gaining traction, approaching its ATH.
• Solana (SOL): Showing breakout signs, up 11% to $177.52.
• Macro Events: Initial Jobless Claims (July 24).
• Overall Expectation: Bullish bias with altcoin momentum building.

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TOTAL Market Cap Analysis

The total market cap reached a high of $3.98T last week but has pulled back slightly to $3.93T, the support zone of $3.65T predicted last week has not been tested yet. The bullish sentiment stays intact. Supported by higher lows on the daily chart. If we were to retest $3.65T and lose that level that could lead to a deeper correction but this seems unlikely right now in my opinion

Comparison to Last Week: Last week’s prediction of slow grinding towards $4T has played out perfectly, the market hit $3.98T but some sources said it did hit the $4T level. This validates our bullish case.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Retest and breakout of the $4T level that then acts as support.
• Bearish Case: Retest and break of $3.65T. Would target $3.2T as noted last week.
• Strategy: Enter long positions on a bounce from $3.65T, Consider breakout trades above $4T with confirmation from volume.

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TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap) Analysis

The altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) is at $1.1T, still below its ATH but showing signs of strength with increased trading volume. Last week’s prediction of a delayed altcoin season is shifting, as capital appears to be rotating into altcoins, evidenced by a rising Altcoin Season Index (33/100 from 27/100)

Comparison to Last Week: The anticipated altcoin lag persisted, but rising volume and a declining BTC.D suggest the breakout above the ATH predicted last week is becoming more likely.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A breakout above the ATH ($1.3T) could confirm an altcoin season, especially if BTC.D falls below 60%.
• Bearish Case: Failure to break resistance may lead to consolidation near $1T.
• Strategy: Accumulate high-quality altcoins on dips. Look for long entries on a high-volume break above $1.3T.

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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Analysis

Bitcoin dominance has declined to 60.8% from 64.7%, approaching the 60% threshold flagged last week as a trigger for altcoin rallies. This drop aligns with increased altcoin activity, suggesting capital rotation.

Comparison to Last Week: The prediction of a potential BTC.D drop below 60% triggering altcoin strength is playing out, with the decline from 64.7% supporting this outlook.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case for Altcoins: A break below 60% could accelerate altcoin gains.
• Bearish Case for Altcoins: A rebound above 64% would reinforce Bitcoin’s outperformance.
• Strategy: Use BTC.D as a leading indicator. Prepare for altcoin trades if dominance falls below 60%.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

Bitcoin has stabilized at $118,000 after peaking at $122,000, holding above the $100,000 support level identified last week. The $130,000 resistance remains in focus, with consolidation likely before the next move.

Comparison to Last Week: The bullish case of BTC holding above $120,000 was partially correct, though it pulled back slightly. The $100,000 support has not been tested, reinforcing the uptrend.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A break above $120,000 could target $130,000. Confirm with higher highs on the 4-hour chart.
• Bearish Case: A drop below $110,000 may test $100,000 support.
• Strategy: Scale into longs on dips to $110,000-$115,000, with stop-losses below $100,000. Breakout trades above $130,000 remain viable.

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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

Ethereum is trading at $3,592.56, approaching its ATH, driven by better regulatory developments. Last week’s prediction of a potential breakout is gaining traction, with ETH outperforming BTC in recent days.

Comparison to Last Week: ETH’s strength was anticipated, and it’s now closer to breaking its previous run high, aligning with the bullish case. The high-volume breakout scenario is unfolding.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: Strong momentum could push ETH toward $4,000-$4,500.
• Bearish Case: Failure to break may lead to consolidation near $3,400 - $3,800.
• Strategy: Enter longs on a high-volume break above the highs, with stop-losses below $3,200. Scale into positions on dips to $3,300.

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Solana (SOL) Analysis

Solana has risen 11% to $177.52, showing breakout signs from last week’s consolidation.

Comparison to Last Week: The bullish case of a breakout above resistance with strong volume is playing out, as SOL has gained significantly, supported by declining BTC.D.

Trading Insight:

• Bullish Case: A sustained move above $180 could target $200-$250, especially with altcoin season momentum.
• Bearish Case: A drop below $160 may signal a return to consolidation.
• Strategy: Accumulate on dips to $165-$170, with stop-losses below $160. Look for breakout trades above $180 with volume confirmation.

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Macro-Economic Events This Week

Several macro-economic events could influence market volatility:

• Initial jobless claims (July 24): Higher-than-expected claims could dampen risk appetite, while lower claims may support bullish sentiment.

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Overall Expectation

The market retains a bullish bias, with the total market cap holding above $3.65T and altcoins gaining momentum as BTC.D drops to 60.8%. Bitcoin remains strong at $118,000, while ETH and SOL show breakout potential.

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Conclusion

With Bitcoin stabilizing at $118,000 and altcoins like ETH and SOL gaining traction. Last week’s predictions of $3.65T support and potential altcoin breakouts are playing out, with BTC.D’s decline signaling capital rotation. Monitor key levels ($3.65T for TOTAL, $1.3T for TOTAL3, $100,000 for BTC) and macro events for trading opportunities. Stay disciplined, leverage technical indicators, and manage risk effectively.